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Property Crime Trends in Mexico, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mexico, Missouri, a small urban center with a population of 14,064 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, total property crimes increased by 31%, from 210 to 275 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 1.9%, from 13,622 to 13,879 residents, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 40 burglaries, which peaked at 86 in 2013, representing a 115% increase. However, by 2021, burglaries had decreased to 32, a 20% reduction from 2010 levels. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 2.94 in 2010 to 6.15 in 2013, before dropping to 2.31 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also varied, rising from 0.12% in 2010 to a high of 0.30% in 2013, and settling at 0.25% in 2021. These fluctuations suggest periodic waves of burglary activity followed by enhanced prevention efforts or shifts in criminal behavior.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 161 incidents, which increased to a peak of 328 in 2019, representing a 103.7% rise. By 2021, the number had decreased to 220, still 36.6% higher than in 2010. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people rose from 11.82 in 2010 to 24.19 in 2019, before falling to 15.85 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents grew from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.42% in 2019, ending at 0.29% in 2021. This trend indicates that larceny-theft has become a more significant issue for the city relative to the state over time.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an upward trend. From 9 incidents in 2010, it increased to 23 in 2021, a 155.6% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.66 in 2010 to 1.66 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2021. This consistent upward trend suggests a growing problem with vehicle security or organized theft rings in the area.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. From 1 incident in 2010, arson peaked at 4 cases in 2012, representing 0.41% of state arsons that year. By 2021, there was again 1 reported arson, accounting for 0.15% of state cases. The rate per 1,000 people remained below 0.3 throughout the period. The low and inconsistent numbers make it difficult to discern a clear trend, but suggest that arson is not a persistent problem in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income decreased from $46,008 in 2013 to $38,528 in 2016, property crimes increased from 400 to 368. Conversely, as median income rose to $45,967 in 2021, property crimes decreased to 275. This suggests that economic factors may influence property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience: - A slight decrease in burglaries to around 25-30 incidents annually - Larceny-theft cases stabilizing at approximately 250-275 per year - Motor vehicle thefts potentially increasing to 30-35 incidents annually - Arson cases remaining low and sporadic, likely not exceeding 2-3 per year
In conclusion, Mexico, Missouri has faced varying property crime challenges over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft have shown signs of improvement in recent years, motor vehicle theft has emerged as a growing concern. The relationship between economic conditions and crime rates underscores the importance of addressing socioeconomic factors in crime prevention strategies. Moving forward, targeted efforts to combat vehicle theft and maintain the downward trend in other property crimes will be crucial for improving public safety in the city.
