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Property Crime Trends in Merriam Woods, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Merriam Woods, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2011 to 2019, the total number of property crimes increased from 0 to 10, representing a significant percentage increase. During this same period, the population grew from 3,332 in 2011 to 3,035 in 2019, showing a slight overall decline despite some years of growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2013, there were 3 burglaries reported, representing 0.01% of the state's total. This increased to 5 burglaries in 2015 (0.02% of state total), but then decreased to 2 in 2016 and 2018, before rising again to 4 in 2019 (0.03% of state total). When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.82 in 2013 to 1.32 in 2019. This trend suggests that while the raw number of burglaries has fluctuated, the rate relative to population has generally increased, indicating a growing concern for the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a sporadic pattern. There were no reported cases from 2011 to 2015, but 5 cases were reported in 2016, representing 0.01% of the state's total. This dropped to 2 cases in 2017 and 2018, before rising again to 5 cases in 2019 (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2015 to 1.65 in 2019. This trend suggests an emerging issue with larceny-theft in recent years, despite its relatively low occurrence compared to state figures.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare but showed an unusual spike in 2018. There was 1 reported case in 2013 and 2015 each, representing 0.01% of the state's total. However, in 2018, there were 4 reported cases, accounting for 0.03% of the state's total, before dropping back to 1 case in 2019 (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents jumped from 0.30 in 2015 to 1.33 in 2018, then decreased to 0.33 in 2019. This spike in 2018 warrants attention, as it could indicate a temporary surge in organized theft or a one-time anomaly.
Arson cases have been consistently reported as zero from 2011 to 2019, indicating that this particular crime has not been a significant issue for the city during the observed period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $33,385 in 2013 to $36,809 in 2019, the overall property crime rate showed an upward trend, rising from 1.10 per 1,000 residents in 2013 to 3.29 per 1,000 residents in 2019. This suggests that despite rising incomes, other factors may be contributing to increased property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the overall upward trend in property crimes, albeit with fluctuations. Based on historical patterns, burglary rates may stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft could see a slight increase to approximately 2 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain relatively low but may experience occasional spikes similar to the one observed in 2018.
In summary, Merriam Woods has experienced a general increase in property crime rates over the observed period, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The spike in motor vehicle theft in 2018 stands out as an anomaly that warrants continued monitoring. Despite rising median incomes, the city faces challenges in curbing property crime rates. Local law enforcement and community leaders should focus on implementing targeted strategies to address these trends and improve overall safety for residents.
