Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the absolute number of incidents increased slightly from 60 in 2010 to 76 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 5.4 to 5.4 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.02% and 0.08% over the period. This suggests that while the city saw a slight increase in incidents, it generally kept pace with state-wide trends in this category.

Arson cases in the city have shown a volatile but generally decreasing trend. From 8 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 24 in 2011 before declining to zero reported cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 2.1 in 2011 and dropping to 0 by 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.41% in 2011 before falling to 0% in 2022, indicating substantial improvement in this area relative to state trends.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a period of increasing population density, which rose from 3,265 per square mile in 2010 to 4,145 in 2022. This suggests that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income increased from $29,885 in 2013 to $37,055 in 2022, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are projected to stabilize around 25-30 incidents annually, while larceny theft may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 50-55 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 70-80 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, with occasional years potentially seeing no reported incidents.

In conclusion, Mendota has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022, with significant reductions across most categories despite population growth. This positive trend, correlated with increasing population density and rising median income, suggests a city successfully managing urban growth while enhancing public safety. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for sustaining its improved safety profile and quality of life for its residents.