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Property Crime Trends in Mendenhall, Mississippi: A Tale of Declining Burglaries and Rising Larceny-Theft
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mendenhall, located in Mississippi, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over recent years, set against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2020 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 17 to 14, representing a 17.65% reduction. During this same period, the city's population declined from 5,438 to 5,110, a 6.03% decrease.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2020, there were 9 burglaries, which dropped to 3 in 2022, marking a substantial 66.67% decrease. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.65 in 2020 to 0.59 in 2022. Interestingly, while burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, dropping from 0.26% in 2020 to 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, the city's contribution to statewide burglary statistics has also diminished.
Larceny theft incidents have shown more variability. The number increased from 5 in 2020 to 10 in 2021, before decreasing to 8 in 2022. This represents a 60% increase from 2020 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.92 in 2020 to 1.57 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures doubled from 0.03% in 2020 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft has become a more prominent issue relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained stable at 3 incidents in both 2020 and 2022, with a brief drop to 1 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 0.55 in 2020 to 0.59 in 2022 due to population decline. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.21% in 2020 to 0.18% in 2022, suggesting a marginal improvement relative to statewide trends.
Arson incidents remained at zero throughout the period from 2020 to 2022, indicating that this particular crime has not been a significant concern for the city in recent years.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,016 per square mile in 2020 to 955 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime. This suggests a potential link between population density and crime rates. Additionally, the shift in racial demographics, with the Black population decreasing from 51% in 2020 to 47% in 2022 and the White population increasing from 48% to 50%, coincided with changes in crime patterns, though direct causation cannot be inferred.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Burglaries are projected to stabilize at low levels, while larceny theft may show slight fluctuations. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain relatively constant, and arson incidents are likely to remain rare or nonexistent.
In summary, Mendenhall has experienced a general decline in property crimes, particularly in burglaries, over the past few years. This trend, occurring alongside population decrease and demographic shifts, points to changing dynamics within the community. The city's evolving role in statewide crime statistics, especially the reduced share of burglaries and increased share of larceny thefts, suggests a shifting landscape of criminal activity that may require targeted prevention strategies in the coming years.
