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Property Crime Trends in Mebane: Navigating Safety Amid Rapid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mebane, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population growth over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 5.97%, from 536 to 568 incidents. During the same period, the population grew substantially by 41.1%, from 19,423 to 27,406 residents, indicating a disproportionate relationship between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2011, there were 95 burglaries, which decreased to 35 by 2022, representing a 63.16% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.89 in 2011 to 1.28 in 2022, a 73.82% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.27% in 2013 before dropping to 0.14% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in the city, showed an overall increase. The number of incidents rose from 421 in 2011 to 506 in 2022, a 20.19% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 21.68 to 18.46, a 14.85% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.31% in 2011 to 0.42% in 2022, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average. This trend suggests that while larceny-theft remains a concern, its impact relative to population growth has diminished.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 20 in 2011 to 27 in 2022, a 35% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 1.03 to 0.99, a 3.88% drop when adjusted for population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, ending at 0.19% in 2022, down from 0.21% in 2011. This data suggests that while the absolute number of thefts has increased, the risk per capita has remained relatively stable.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. The data shows fluctuations between 0 and 3 incidents per year, with no clear trend. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, from 0% in some years to a peak of 0.51% in 2016. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to draw significant conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,764 people per square mile in 2011 to 2,489 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 27.60 to 20.73. This suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved crime prevention or detection.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in crime rates per capita. Burglaries are expected to further decline, potentially reaching a rate below 1 per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 18 incidents per 1,000 residents, while motor vehicle theft rates may fluctuate but remain close to 1 per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Mebane has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decrease in burglaries, coupled with the relatively stable larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft rates when adjusted for population, indicates effective crime management strategies. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
