Motor vehicle theft has shown a more volatile pattern. In 2010, there were 63 incidents, which increased to a peak of 128 in 2013 before declining to 70 in 2022. Despite the overall increase of 11.1% from 2010 to 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 4.79 to 4.64 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.03% and 0.09%, settling at 0.05% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft remains a concern, its relative impact has not significantly worsened over time.

Arson cases in the city have shown considerable variation. From 20 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 8 in 2018 before rising again to 27 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 1.52 in 2010 to 1.72 in 2020. The city's proportion of state arson cases varied widely, from a high of 0.33% in 2010 to a low of 0.11% in 2018. This volatility in arson rates may indicate sporadic incidents rather than a consistent trend.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and the Hispanic population percentage, which increased from 90% in 2013 to 91% in 2022. As the Hispanic population grew, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the rise in median income (from $36,009 in 2013 to $40,242 in 2022) and the decline in property crime rates, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at around 1.3 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may further decrease to approximately 4 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are projected to remain relatively stable, hovering around 4.5 per 1,000 residents. Arson cases are the most difficult to predict due to their volatility but may average around 1.5 per 1,000 residents.

In summary, McFarland has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The improvements in economic conditions and changes in demographic composition appear to have played a role in this positive trend. While challenges remain, especially in addressing motor vehicle theft and the unpredictable nature of arson incidents, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community environment. Continued focus on economic development and community engagement may further enhance these positive trends in the coming years.