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Property Crime Trends in McComb, Mississippi: Burglaries Surge Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
McComb, a city in Mississippi, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside modest population shifts from 2010 to 2017. During this period, the total number of property crimes in the city marginally increased by 0.36%, from 826 to 833 incidents, while the population decreased by 3.59%, from 16,161 to 15,581 residents. This data suggests a complex relationship between crime rates and population dynamics in the city. Burglary trends in McComb show significant variations over time. In 2010, there were 226 burglaries, which decreased to 163 in 2016, representing a 27.88% reduction. However, by 2017, burglaries surged to 321, a 96.93% increase from 2016. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 13.98 in 2010 to 20.60 in 2017. The city's share of state burglaries also increased significantly, from 1.31% in 2010 to 4.24% in 2017. This trend suggests that while the overall population decreased, the city experienced a disproportionate increase in burglaries compared to the state average.
Larceny theft in McComb showed a different pattern. In 2010, there were 574 incidents, which decreased to 492 in 2017, a 14.29% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 35.52 in 2010 to 31.58 in 2017. However, the city's percentage of state larceny thefts increased from 1.71% in 2010 to 2.03% in 2017. This suggests that while larceny theft decreased within the city, it did not decrease as rapidly as in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in McComb fluctuated but showed an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 26 incidents, which decreased to 20 in 2017, a 23.08% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 1.61 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2017. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.80% in 2010 to 1.00% in 2017, indicating that the decrease in the city was less pronounced than in other parts of the state.
Arson data for McComb is consistently reported as zero incidents from 2010 to 2017, with a 0.00% share of state arsons. This suggests either a lack of arson occurrences or potential underreporting in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $30,952 in 2013 to $31,150 in 2017, total property crimes fluctuated but showed an overall increase from 712 to 833. This suggests that rising incomes may not have had the expected dampening effect on property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, McComb may experience a slight increase in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching around 350-400 incidents annually. Larceny theft is predicted to stabilize around 500-550 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 20-25 incidents annually.
In conclusion, McComb has experienced complex and sometimes contradictory trends in property crime over the analyzed period. The most significant discovery is the sharp increase in burglaries, contrasting with the decrease in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft. These trends, coupled with the city's increasing share of state crime percentages, suggest that the city is facing unique challenges in property crime prevention, particularly in burglaries. The inverse relationship between rising median income and property crime rates indicates that economic factors alone may not be sufficient to curb criminal activities in the area. As the city moves forward, targeted strategies to address burglaries while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for improving overall public safety in McComb.
