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Property Crime Trends in Matthews, NC: A Decade of Increasing Incidents Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Matthews, a town in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of population growth. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes increased by 19.9%, rising from 739 to 886 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 7.3%, from 36,953 to 39,652 residents, indicating that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 112 burglaries, which decreased to 111 in 2022, a marginal 0.9% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 3.03 to 2.80. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.45% in 2022, suggesting that while local rates improved slightly, they worsened relative to state averages. A notable spike occurred in 2021 with 226 burglaries, representing 0.88% of state totals, before returning to lower levels in 2022.
Larceny theft has shown an overall upward trend. Incidents increased from 587 in 2010 to 726 in 2022, a 23.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 15.88 to 18.31. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts increased from 0.45% to 0.61% over this period, indicating a growing concentration of these crimes relative to state figures. The peak was in 2019 with 959 incidents, representing 0.86% of state totals.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately increased. There were 40 incidents in 2010, rising to 49 in 2022, a 22.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew slightly from 1.08 to 1.24. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.38% to 0.34%, suggesting that while local rates increased, they did not grow as rapidly as state averages. A notable peak occurred in 2016 with 56 thefts, representing 0.84% of state totals.
Arson cases in the city have shown a declining trend. From 9 incidents in 2010, cases dropped to 0 in 2022, a 100% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.24 to 0. The city's proportion of state arsons decreased from 0.88% to 0%, indicating a significant improvement both locally and relative to state figures. However, there were fluctuations, with peaks of 10 cases in 2011 (1.09% of state totals) and 9 cases in 2017 (1.31% of state totals).
Examining correlations, a strong relationship emerges between property crime trends and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 78% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, total property crimes increased. Concurrently, the black population grew from 9% to 12%, and the Asian population from 6% to 8%. This demographic shift coincided with rising property crime rates, suggesting potential socioeconomic factors at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes. Larceny theft is expected to remain the dominant category, potentially reaching 800-850 incidents annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 100-120 cases per year, while motor vehicle thefts could increase to 55-60 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0-5 incidents per year.
In summary, Matthews has experienced an overall increase in property crimes, particularly in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, while seeing improvements in burglary and arson rates. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and population growth, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing crime patterns in the city. As Matthews continues to evolve, addressing these property crime trends will likely remain a key focus for local law enforcement and community leaders.
