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Property Crime Trends in Maryville, Tennessee: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Maryville, Tennessee, a charming locale nestled in the foothills of the Great Smoky Mountains, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 68.2%, from 915 to 291 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 15.7%, from 46,152 to 53,409 residents, suggesting an impressive improvement in overall safety despite urban expansion.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 132 burglaries, which dropped to 40 by 2022, representing a 69.7% decrease. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.86 to 0.75, a 73.8% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but remained relatively low, ranging from 0.2% to 0.56% over the period. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the population, indicates a substantial improvement in residential and commercial security within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a notable decline. Incidents decreased from 752 in 2010 to 229 in 2022, a 69.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 16.29 to 4.29, a 73.7% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.3% and 0.64%. This consistent downward trend in larceny-theft suggests effective crime prevention strategies and improved community vigilance.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more modest decline compared to other property crimes. The number of incidents decreased from 31 in 2010 to 22 in 2022, a 29% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.67 to 0.41, a 38.8% decrease. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively low, ranging from 0.12% to 0.41%. This trend indicates that while progress has been made, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent challenge for law enforcement.
Arson cases in the city have remained consistently low throughout the period, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 3 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 residents has stayed below 0.06 throughout the period. The city's contribution to state arson cases has varied widely, from 0% to 0.5%, likely due to the small number of incidents causing significant percentage swings. The low and stable arson rates suggest effective fire prevention and investigation measures in place.
A strong correlation exists between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income, which rose from $51,862 in 2013 to $63,954 in 2022, a 23.3% increase. This relationship suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 71% in 2013 to 73% in 2022 correlates with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a more stable and invested community.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, total property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-25% by 2029, bringing the number of incidents below 230 annually. However, this projection assumes consistent economic growth and continued effectiveness of current crime prevention strategies.
In conclusion, Maryville has demonstrated remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with modest improvements in motor vehicle theft and consistently low arson rates, paint a picture of a community becoming increasingly safer. These positive trends, occurring alongside population growth and economic improvement, suggest that Maryville is effectively managing urban expansion while enhancing the quality of life for its residents through improved public safety measures.
