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Property Crime Trends in Marshall, Texas: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marshall, Texas, has experienced significant changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 62%, from 1,102 to 419 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a slight population decline of 0.03%, from 29,278 in 2010 to 29,270 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 308 burglaries, which decreased to 137 by 2022, representing a 55.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.52 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.68 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.15% and 0.27% during this period. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it kept pace with statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decrease. In 2010, there were 729 larceny thefts, which dropped to 251 by 2022, a 65.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 24.9 in 2010 to 8.57 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures decreased from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the city outperformed the state average in reducing this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable but still show an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 65 motor vehicle thefts, which reduced to 31 in 2022, a 52.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.22 in 2010 to 1.06 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.04% and 0.14% during this period, ending at 0.04% in 2022, suggesting a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have shown considerable volatility. From 8 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 1 in 2022, an 87.5% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.27 in 2010 to 0.03 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures varied widely, peaking at 0.64% in 2018 before dropping to 0.05% in 2022, indicating significant year-to-year fluctuations in this rare but serious crime.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincided with a slight decrease in population density, from 983 people per square mile in 2010 to 975 in 2021. Additionally, the median income increased from $44,007 in 2013 to $47,640 in 2022, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 62% and 65% during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a continued decline over the next five years. By 2029, total property crimes are projected to decrease by an additional 20-25% from 2022 levels, potentially reaching around 315-335 incidents annually. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Marshall has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most notable improvements were seen in larceny theft and burglary, with substantial reductions in both absolute numbers and rates per capita. These positive trends, coupled with modest economic improvements and stable community demographics, suggest a continuing trajectory of crime reduction in the coming years. The city's ability to outpace state averages in several crime categories indicates effective local strategies in combating property crime, positioning Marshall as an increasingly safer community within Texas.
