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Property Crime Trends in Marshall, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marshall, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 38.36%, from 305 to 188 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 3.59%, from 14,442 to 14,960 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 67 burglaries, which decreased to 18 in 2022, representing a 73.13% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 4.64 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.20 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.30% in 2021 before dropping to 0.14% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts to reduce burglaries have been effective, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary rates has varied.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decline. In 2010, there were 232 larceny thefts, which decreased to 151 in 2022, a 34.91% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 16.06 in 2010 to 10.09 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.33% in 2017 before settling at 0.19% in 2022. This indicates that while larceny theft has decreased overall, its proportion relative to state figures has remained relatively stable in recent years.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. There were 6 incidents in 2010, which increased to 19 in 2022, a 216.67% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.42 in 2010 to 1.27 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, peaking at 0.12% in 2021. This suggests that while other property crimes have decreased, motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern in the city.
Arson incidents have fluctuated but remained relatively low. There were no reported arsons in 2010, but by 2022, there was 1 incident. The highest number of arsons (3) was reported in 2017, 2019, and 2021. The city's share of state arsons has varied significantly, reaching a high of 0.50% in 2019 before dropping to 0.16% in 2022. Given the low numbers, these fluctuations may not indicate a significant trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $42,361 in 2013 to $49,168 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, the rise in homeownership from 63% in 2013 to 70% in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between stable communities and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), overall property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly. Burglary and larceny theft are likely to maintain their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft might stabilize or show a modest increase. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but may fluctuate year to year due to their infrequent occurrence.
In conclusion, Marshall has shown overall positive trends in property crime reduction, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The most significant challenges appear to be in addressing the rise in motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and homeownership rates, suggest a generally improving security situation in the city. However, continued vigilance and targeted strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
