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Property Crime Trends in Marion, NC: Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marion, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 438 incidents in 2010 to 313 in 2022, representing a 28.5% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 20,725 in 2010 to 19,915 in 2022, a 3.9% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 136 burglaries, which increased to 220 in 2017, before dramatically dropping to 92 in 2022. This represents a 32.4% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 6.56 in 2010 to 10.96 in 2017, before falling to 4.62 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.76% in 2017 and settling at 0.38% in 2022, indicating a relative improvement in the city's burglary situation compared to the state.
Larceny-theft trends show a general decline over the period. From 285 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 421 in 2013 before decreasing to 190 in 2022, a 33.3% reduction from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 20.58 in 2013 and dropping to 9.54 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.16% and 0.43%, suggesting that the city's larceny-theft trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an upward trend. From 17 incidents in 2010, it increased to 31 in 2022, an 82.4% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.82 in 2010 to 1.56 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, indicating that this crime type became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.
Arson incidents fluctuated but remained low throughout the period. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 5 per year, with 3 incidents reported in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.25. The city's proportion of state arsons varied widely, from 0% in some years to 0.56% in 2014, suggesting high volatility in this rare crime type.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $36,710 in 2013 to $49,105 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing (which increased from 68% in 2013 to 71% in 2022) and reduced property crime rates, suggesting that higher home ownership might contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Marion may see a further reduction in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 250-275 incidents annually. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft might stabilize or slightly increase. Arson incidents are likely to remain low but unpredictable due to their rarity.
In summary, Marion has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, with significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft offsetting increases in motor vehicle theft. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and home ownership rates, suggest an improving safety and economic environment in the city. However, continued vigilance and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
