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Property Crime Trends in Marianna, Florida: A Paradoxical Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marianna, a city in Florida, has witnessed significant changes in its property crime rates and population dynamics over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Marianna decreased by 42%, dropping from 288 to 167 incidents. During the same period, the city's population declined by 9.2%, from 15,461 to 14,038 residents. This divergence between crime rates and population trends suggests a complex interplay of factors affecting the city's safety and demographics.
Burglary trends in Marianna have shown notable fluctuations over time. In 2010, there were 57 burglaries, which peaked at 76 in 2011 before declining to 40 in 2022, representing a 30% decrease over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.69 in 2010 to 2.85 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they became a larger portion of the state's total.
Larceny theft incidents in Marianna showed a significant downward trend, decreasing by 48.4% from 215 in 2010 to 111 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.91 in 2010 to 7.91 in 2022. However, the city's proportion of state larceny thefts doubled from 0.08% to 0.16% over this period, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Marianna fluctuated considerably, starting at 16 incidents in 2010, dropping to zero in 2012, and then rising back to 16 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.03 in 2010 to 1.14 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022, indicating a growing concentration of these crimes relative to state trends.
Arson cases in Marianna were sporadic, with peaks of 4 incidents in 2012 and 3 in 2016, but dropping to zero in several years including 2019 and 2020. In 2022, there were 2 reported arsons. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated dramatically, reaching a high of 0.84% in 2022, up from 0.09% in 2010, suggesting that while arson remains relatively rare, it has become more concentrated in the city compared to state averages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Marianna. As median income increased from $35,279 in 2013 to $45,849 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 269 to 167. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition shifts and crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 62% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, and the black population increased from 32% to 37%, property crime rates showed an overall decline, suggesting that demographic changes may have influenced crime patterns in complex ways.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates in Marianna are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 140 total incidents annually. This projection assumes the continuation of current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies.
In conclusion, Marianna has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes despite population decline. The most striking discoveries include the substantial decrease in larceny theft, the volatile yet ultimately stable motor vehicle theft rate, and the city's increasing share of state-level crimes across all categories. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and shifting demographics, paint a picture of a city undergoing significant socioeconomic changes that are reshaping its crime landscape. As Marianna moves forward, these insights can inform targeted strategies to further enhance public safety and community well-being.
