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Property Crime Trends in Marble Hill, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marble Hill, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 34 incidents in 2010 to 38 in 2022, representing an 11.76% increase over this period. Concurrently, the population declined from 3,522 in 2010 to 2,751 in 2022, a 21.89% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 12 burglaries, which decreased to 6 in 2022, a 50% reduction. However, when considering the population decline, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 3.41 in 2010 to 3.63 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating a relatively stable contribution to state-wide burglary statistics despite population decrease.
Larceny theft exhibited more volatility. From 19 incidents in 2010, it rose to 31 in 2022, a 63.16% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 5.39 in 2010 to 11.27 in 2022, suggesting a significant rise in larceny relative to the population. The city's percentage of state larceny theft doubled from 0.02% to 0.04% over this period, indicating an increasing share of state-wide larceny incidents.
Motor vehicle theft trends were less pronounced. There were 3 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 1 in 2022, a 66.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.85 to 0.36. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.02% to 0.00% (rounded down from a very small percentage).
Arson data for the city shows no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022, consistently representing 0.00% of state arson cases. This suggests that arson has not been a significant concern for the community during this period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,128 per square mile in 2010 to 1,662 in 2022, property crime rates per capita increased. This could suggest that lower population density may be associated with higher crime rates, possibly due to reduced community surveillance or changes in local economic conditions.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential continuation of the observed patterns. If current trends persist, we might expect a slight increase in burglaries, potentially reaching 7-8 incidents annually. Larceny theft may continue to rise, possibly reaching 35-40 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low, fluctuating between 0-2 incidents annually. Arson incidents are expected to remain at or near zero, based on historical data.
In summary, Marble Hill has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns against a backdrop of population decline. The most significant changes have been observed in larceny theft, which has increased both in absolute numbers and relative to the population. Burglary rates have remained relatively stable when adjusted for population, while motor vehicle theft has decreased. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates presents an intriguing area for further community planning and crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, addressing the rising larceny theft trend should be a priority, while maintaining the low levels of other property crimes.
