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Property Crime Trends in Marble Falls: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marble Falls, Texas, a small city of approximately 15.66 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 49%, from 314 to 160 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 17.2%, from 8,254 to 9,673 residents. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of various property crimes and their implications for the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 37 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 60 in 2016 before declining to 46 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.48 in 2010 to 4.76 in 2022, indicating a slight increase in relative terms. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglary rates have remained relatively stable, they have become a larger portion of the state's total burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 262 larceny-theft incidents, which dropped to 102 in 2022, representing a 61% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 31.74 in 2010 to 10.54 in 2022, a significant improvement in public safety. Despite this local decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft is likely part of a broader state-wide trend.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. There were 15 incidents in 2010, which decreased to a low of 3 in 2015, before rising again to 12 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 1.82 in 2010 to 1.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has remained consistently low at 0.01-0.03% throughout the period, suggesting that this crime type is not a significant concern relative to state levels.
Arson cases in the city have been rare and sporadic. There was 1 incident in 2010, followed by several years with no reported cases. In 2021, there were 2 arson cases, representing 0.09% of the state's total, the highest percentage in the dataset. However, in 2022, there were no reported arson cases. The infrequency of arson makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or rate per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $50,441 in 2013 to $58,406 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both increasing slightly over the studied period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to remain relatively stable, while larceny-theft may continue its downward trend, albeit at a slower pace. Motor vehicle theft could see a slight increase if recent upticks continue, but is likely to remain low relative to other property crimes.
In conclusion, Marble Falls has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates despite population growth over the past decade. The most notable improvement has been in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown more variable patterns. These trends, combined with rising median incomes and increasing population density, suggest that the city has made progress in improving public safety while managing growth. However, continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
