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Property Crime Trends in Manteo: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Manteo, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly by 52.3%, from 88 incidents in 2010 to 42 in 2022. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth, with the city's population increasing by 1.3% from 5,058 in 2010 to 5,124 in 2022.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 24 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 3 in 2022, representing an 87.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.75 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.59 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this significant decrease, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.04% of the state's total. This suggests that while the city has made substantial progress in reducing burglaries, its share of state-wide incidents has not changed dramatically.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also exhibited a downward trend. The number of incidents decreased from 63 in 2010 to 38 in 2022, a 39.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.46 in 2010 to 7.42 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft incidents has remained relatively low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.05% over the years. This indicates that while larceny-theft remains a concern, the city has made progress in reducing its occurrence and maintains a small proportion of the state's total incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but remains relatively low. From a single incident in 2010, it peaked at 5 incidents in 2012 before returning to 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents has correspondingly varied, from 0.20 in 2010 to 0.19 in 2022, with a peak of 0.95 in 2012. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts has ranged from 0.01% to 0.06%, indicating that while there have been fluctuations, the city consistently accounts for a very small portion of the state's total incidents.
Arson incidents in the city have been extremely rare, with only one reported case in 2017. This single incident represented 0.15% of the state's total arson cases for that year. The rarity of arson cases makes it difficult to establish any meaningful trends or patterns for this specific crime category in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $48,204 in 2013 to $51,525 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there is a slight positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 65% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see total property crimes drop to around 25-30 incidents per year, with larceny-theft remaining the predominant type of property crime.
In summary, Manteo has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a city that has made considerable strides in enhancing public safety. The correlation between rising median incomes, increasing home ownership rates, and declining crime rates suggests that economic stability and community investment may play a role in this positive trend. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
