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Property Crime Trends in Manhattan, Montana: A Decade of Larceny Theft Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Manhattan, Montana, is a small but growing community that has experienced notable changes in property crime trends over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a significant increase from 10 incidents in 2021 to 30 in 2022, representing a 200% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 1,637 in 2010 to 2,008 in 2022, a 22.7% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent over the years. The number of burglaries peaked at 5 incidents in 2010, representing 0.27% of the state's total. However, by 2022, burglaries had dropped to zero. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.05 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. The number of incidents rose from 6 in 2010 to 29 in 2022, a 383% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents also increased from 3.66 in 2010 to 14.44 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents grew from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022, indicating a faster increase in larceny-theft compared to the state average. This trend may suggest a need for enhanced community awareness and preventive measures against theft.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low, with occasional fluctuations. The highest number of incidents was 2 in 2014 and 2017, representing 0.17% and 0.12% of the state's total, respectively. By 2022, there was only 1 incident, accounting for 0.06% of the state's motor vehicle thefts. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.22 in 2010 to 0.50 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement in vehicle security or theft prevention.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city. There were only three reported cases between 2010 and 2022, occurring in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Each of these years saw one incident, representing 1.06%, 1.52%, and 1.52% of the state's total arsons, respectively. Since 2015, there have been no reported arson cases, suggesting effective fire prevention measures or improved community vigilance.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The increase in larceny-theft incidents coincides with population growth and rising population density, which increased from 941 per square mile in 2010 to 1,154 in 2022. This could suggest that as the community becomes more densely populated, opportunities for theft may increase.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent upward trend in overall property crimes, primarily driven by larceny-theft. If current patterns persist, the city might expect to see around 40-45 property crime incidents annually by 2029, with larceny-theft remaining the dominant category.
In conclusion, Manhattan has experienced varied property crime trends over the past decade, with a notable recent increase in larceny-theft contrasting with improvements in other areas such as burglary and motor vehicle theft. As the community continues to grow, local authorities and residents may need to focus on strategies to address the rising larceny-theft incidents while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories.
