Motor vehicle theft trends fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. From 2 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 5 in 2022, representing a 150% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.33 in 2010 to 0.84 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.03%, suggesting a localized uptick in this crime category relative to state trends.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. From 1 incident in 2010, there were no reported cases for several years until 2020, when 2 cases were reported. By 2022, there was 1 reported case. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, peaking at 0.24% in 2020 before settling at 0.11% in 2022. Given the low numbers, these fluctuations may not indicate a significant trend.

Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,738 per square mile in 2010 to 1,675 in 2022, property crimes also declined, suggesting a possible relationship between density and crime rates. Additionally, the increase in median income from $39,924 in 2013 to $45,637 in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.

The racial composition of the city also shifted during this period, with the white population decreasing from 75% in 2013 to 73% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 13%. This demographic shift occurred alongside the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be inferred without further analysis.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see further reductions in burglary and larceny-theft rates, potentially reaching as low as 8 burglaries and 40 larceny-thefts annually. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize around 4-5 incidents per year, while arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low in number.

In summary, Madison has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with notable decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. These positive trends have occurred despite population fluctuations and demographic shifts, suggesting effective local crime prevention strategies. The increase in motor vehicle thefts, although small in absolute numbers, warrants continued attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.