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Property Crime Trends in Macon, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Arson Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Macon, Missouri, is a small urban center that has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 45.33%, from 150 to 82 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 3.06%, from 6,532 to 6,332 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 34 burglaries, which decreased to 7 in 2022, representing a 79.41% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.20 in 2010 to 1.11 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.16% in 2012 before dropping to 0.05% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal behavior patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 109 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 65 in 2022, a 40.37% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 16.69 to 10.27. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.08% and 0.14% throughout the period. This trend indicates a consistent improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. There were 7 incidents in 2010, which increased to 10 in 2022, a 42.86% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.07 to 1.58. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.07%, ending at 0.04% in 2022. This upward trend in vehicle thefts, despite overall property crime decreases, may suggest a need for targeted prevention strategies in this area.
Arson incidents were rare but showed a concerning spike in recent years. There were no reported arsons from 2010 to 2014, with occasional single incidents in subsequent years. However, in 2022, there were 4 arson cases, representing a significant increase. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0 to 0.63. More alarmingly, the city's share of state arsons rose dramatically to 0.65% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $37,954 in 2016 to $41,514 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 113 to 82. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between homeownership rates and reduced property crime, with ownership percentages rising from 62% in 2016 to 69% in 2022 as crime rates fell.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes, potentially reaching around 70 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle thefts and arsons may continue to buck this trend, potentially increasing to 12-15 and 5-6 incidents respectively per year.
In summary, Macon has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, the recent upticks in motor vehicle thefts and arsons present new challenges. The positive correlations with rising incomes and homeownership suggest that continued economic improvements and community investment could further enhance public safety. Moving forward, targeted strategies to address vehicle thefts and fire safety awareness may be crucial in maintaining the overall positive trend in property crime reduction.
