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Property Crime Trends in Macomb, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Macomb, located in Illinois, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population dynamics over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 38.8%, from 412 to 252 incidents. During the same period, the population declined by 12.9%, from 21,376 to 18,591 residents, highlighting a complex relationship between crime rates and demographic shifts.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 55 burglary incidents, which peaked at 124 in 2011 before declining to 42 in 2019. This represents a 23.6% decrease from 2010 to 2019. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.57 in 2010 to 2.13 in 2019. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2019, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a significant downward trend. Incidents decreased from 352 in 2010 to 204 in 2019, a 42% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 16.47 in 2010 to 10.36 in 2019. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.21% to 0.14% over the same period. This indicates that the reduction in larceny theft aligned closely with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed some variability. In 2010, there were 5 incidents, which increased to 10 in 2017 before decreasing to 6 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.30 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.06% during this period, suggesting that local trends did not significantly impact state-wide statistics.
Arson incidents were rare but showed an increase towards the end of the decade. From 2010 to 2014, no arson cases were reported. However, 2 incidents were recorded in both 2015 and 2017, and again in 2019. This increase, while small in absolute numbers, raised the city's share of state arsons from 0% to 0.19% by 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.10 between 2010 and 2019.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $30,797 in 2013 to $41,267 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 399 to 228 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced crime rates.
Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,016 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,857 in 2019, property crimes also declined. This could indicate that lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Macomb may continue to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. The total number of property crimes could potentially drop to around 200-220 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic trends and crime prevention strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Macomb has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft and burglary. This positive trend coincides with increases in median income and decreases in population density, suggesting a complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates. While challenges remain, particularly with recent upticks in arson incidents, the overall trajectory indicates improving safety conditions for residents.
