Motor vehicle theft trends showed more variability but ultimately decreased. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which remained the same in 2012 and 2013, peaked at 32 in 2017, and then dropped to 9 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.49 in 2010 to 0.30 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.04% and 0.12%, reaching its highest point in 2017. The overall reduction in motor vehicle thefts might be due to improved vehicle security technologies and targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. Only four years in the dataset reported arson incidents: one case each in 2010, 2014, 2017, and 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.04. The city's contribution to state arson cases ranged from 0.09% to 0.14% in the years where incidents were reported. The infrequency of arson cases suggests it is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $64,722 in 2013 to $75,243 in 2020, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic well-being and property crime incidence. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 70% in 2013 to 74% in 2020, coinciding with the overall decline in property crimes. This could indicate that higher rates of homeownership contribute to community stability and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it is projected that by 2029, the city could see total property crimes reduced to approximately 150-170 incidents per year. This forecast assumes that current socioeconomic trends and crime prevention strategies remain consistent.

In summary, Lynn Haven has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the rarity of arson incidents, paint a picture of a community that has become safer over time. These positive trends, occurring alongside population growth and improvements in economic indicators, suggest that the city has implemented effective strategies to combat property crime. As the community continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these crime reduction efforts will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.