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Property Crime Trends in Lynn, Alabama: A Small Community Facing Increasing Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lynn, Alabama, a small community with a population of 2,138 as of 2022, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes increased from 4 to 10, representing a 150% increase. This trend occurred alongside a slight population decrease from 2,378 in 2010 to 2,190 in 2021, marking a 7.9% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant increase from 1 incident in 2010 to 4 in 2021, representing a 300% rise. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate increased from 0.42 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.83 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also increased from 0% to 0.05% during this period, indicating a growing contribution to state-wide burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 3 in 2021, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.84 in 2010 to 1.37 in 2021. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft remained relatively low, rising only slightly from 0% to 0.01% of the state total.
Motor vehicle theft showed a notable increase from 1 incident in 2010 to 3 in 2021, a 200% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.42 in 2010 to 1.37 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% to 0.05%, indicating a growing impact on state-wide statistics for this crime category.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in property crimes coincides with a period of declining median income. From 2013 to 2022, median income decreased from $42,069 to $36,866, a 12.4% drop. This economic downturn may have contributed to the rise in property crimes.
Population density remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 223 per square mile in 2010 to 200 in 2022. This minor change in density doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with the increase in property crimes. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with the white population percentage increasing slightly from 94% in 2013 to 98% in 2022. This stability in racial demographics doesn't seem to correlate strongly with property crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. If current patterns persist, the city could see total property crimes increase to approximately 15-18 incidents annually by 2029. This projection assumes similar economic and demographic conditions.
The most significant discoveries in Lynn's property crime analysis include the substantial increases in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, coupled with a modest rise in larceny-theft. These trends, occurring against a backdrop of declining population and median income, suggest a complex interplay between economic factors and crime rates. The city's growing contribution to state-wide property crime statistics, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft, indicates a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. As Lynn moves forward, addressing these rising property crime rates while navigating economic challenges will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
