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Property Crime Trends in Lower Burrell: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lower Burrell, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 128 in 2010, peaking at 223 in 2014, and ultimately decreasing to 105 in 2019, representing an overall decrease of 17.97% over the decade. During this same period, the population declined from 11,906 in 2010 to 11,229 in 2019, a decrease of 5.69%.
Burglary rates in the city showed significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which rose to a peak of 45 in 2011, representing a 95.65% increase. However, by 2019, burglaries had decreased dramatically to just 2 incidents, a 91.30% reduction from 2010 levels. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.93 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.09% in 2010, peaking at 0.18% in 2014, and dropping to 0.08% by 2019. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or shifts in criminal activity within the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also exhibited fluctuations. Starting at 97 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 186 in 2014 before declining to 102 in 2019, representing a modest 5.15% increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 8.15 in 2010 to 9.08 in 2019. Notably, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures saw a significant spike in 2019, jumping to 1.09% from 0.17% in 2017, indicating a potential shift in regional crime patterns or reporting methods.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low throughout the period. From 8 incidents in 2010, it decreased to just 1 in 2019, a 87.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.67 to 0.09 over this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0% and 0.07%, ending at 0.1% in 2019, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant issue for the area compared to other parts of the state.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2019, indicating either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting. This consistent lack of arson cases sets the city apart in terms of fire-related property crimes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,056 per square mile in 2010 to 996 in 2019, there was a corresponding overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that lower population density might contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $58,480 in 2013 to $72,190 in 2019, coinciding with a general downward trend in property crimes, particularly burglaries. This could indicate that improving economic conditions may have a mitigating effect on certain types of property crime.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Lower Burrell may experience a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are likely to remain at very low levels, possibly averaging 1-2 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may stabilize around 90-100 cases annually, assuming current trends persist. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain infrequent, with possibly 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Lower Burrell has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. The most significant challenges remain in the area of larceny-theft, though even these incidents have shown some decline from peak levels. The correlation between rising median incomes, decreasing population density, and falling crime rates suggests that socioeconomic factors play a role in the city's crime landscape. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community policing strategies could further reinforce these positive trends in property crime reduction.
