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Property Crime Trends in Long View, NC: A Decade of Significant Reductions
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Long View, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 236 to 127, representing a 46.2% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 4,989 to 5,126, a modest increase of 2.7%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 102 burglaries, which dropped to 21 in 2022, marking a 79.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 20.4 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 4.1 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, peaking at 0.34% in 2016 before declining to 0.09% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over time, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts dropped from 116 in 2010 to 79 in 2022, a 31.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 23.3 in 2010 to 15.4 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.05% and 0.14% throughout the period. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security, though not as pronounced as the burglary reduction.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased slightly from 18 in 2010 to 27 in 2022, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 3.6 in 2010 to 5.3 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, peaking at 0.38% in 2017. This trend suggests that while other property crimes decreased, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue in the city.
Arson cases in Long View have been relatively low but variable. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with the highest rate of 1.2 per 1,000 people occurring in 2017. The city's contribution to state arson figures fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 0.87% in 2017 before dropping to 0.23% in 2022. These fluctuations, given the small number of incidents, make it difficult to discern a clear trend.
A strong correlation appears to exist between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $30,360 in 2013 to $47,773 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 259 to 127. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Long View could see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 80-90 incidents per year. Burglaries may continue to decline, potentially reaching 10-15 cases annually. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 50-60 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts, however, may continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 35-40 cases annually if current patterns persist.
In summary, Long View has made significant strides in reducing property crimes, particularly burglaries and larceny-thefts, over the past decade. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. However, the increasing trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development while addressing specific crime trends will be crucial for sustaining and improving the overall safety and well-being of its residents.
