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Property Crime Trends in Lone Jack, Missouri: A Decade of Change and Stability
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lone Jack, Missouri, a city that has experienced significant population growth, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city's population increased by 14.95%, growing from 3,344 to 3,844 residents. During this period, property crime rates fluctuated, with the total number of incidents peaking at 22 in 2012 and reaching lows of 4 in both 2018 and 2021.
Burglary rates in Lone Jack have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 5 reported burglaries, with a rate of 1.49 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this number had dropped to 0, indicating a complete absence of reported burglaries. The city's contribution to state burglaries also decreased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0% in 2022, suggesting improved security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents, however, have shown an overall increasing trend with some fluctuations. The number of larceny-thefts rose from 14 in 2010 to 16 in 2022. Despite this increase, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing only slightly from 4.19 in 2010 to 4.16 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.02% during this period, indicating a slight rise in Lone Jack's contribution to overall state larceny-theft incidents.
Motor vehicle theft has emerged as a growing concern in Lone Jack. While there were no reported incidents in 2010, by 2022, the city recorded 3 motor vehicle thefts. This change is reflected in the rate per 1,000 people, which increased from 0 to 0.78, and in the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts, which rose from 0% to 0.01%. This trend suggests a need for increased attention to vehicle security in the community.
Arson incidents have remained consistently at 0 throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in arson cases indicates effective fire prevention measures or a lack of arson-related activities in the community.
An examination of correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 564 per square mile in 2010 to 648 in 2022, there was a slight upward trend in overall property crimes. The median income in Lone Jack rose significantly from $76,317 in 2013 to $92,250 in 2022, coinciding with fluctuations in property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also increased from 82% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, which may have contributed to the overall decrease in burglaries.
Predictive models forecasting property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggest a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries are likely to remain low or at zero, while larceny-theft may continue to fluctuate around 15-20 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts could potentially increase slightly, reaching 4-5 incidents per year. Arson is expected to remain at zero or very close to it.
In conclusion, Lone Jack has experienced a shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The most significant changes include a substantial decrease in burglaries, a slight increase in larceny-thefts, and an emergence of motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with the city's population growth and increasing median income, paint a picture of a changing community with evolving security challenges. The consistent absence of arson cases is a positive aspect of the city's safety profile. As Lone Jack continues to grow and develop, maintaining focus on preventing larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft while sustaining the low burglary rates will be crucial for ensuring the overall safety and well-being of its residents.
