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Property Crime Trends in Livingston, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in Paradise Valley
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Livingston, Montana, a city nestled in the picturesque Paradise Valley, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, starting at 138 in 2010 and ending at 188 in 2022, representing a 36.23% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 9,360 to 9,299, a slight decrease of 0.65%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which decreased to 21 by 2022, a 8.70% reduction. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.46 in 2010 to 2.26 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.24% in 2010 to 1.34% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, has shown more volatility. In 2010, there were 105 larceny thefts, which increased to 153 by 2022, a 45.71% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 11.22 in 2010 to 16.45 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts also increased from 0.91% to 1.23% over this period, indicating a faster growth in larceny thefts compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been relatively stable. There were 10 such thefts in 2010, increasing slightly to 14 in 2022, a 40% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.07 in 2010 to 1.51 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 1.26% to 0.90%, suggesting that while local thefts increased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Arson cases have shown the most dramatic increase. From 3 cases in 2010, the number rose to 8 in 2022, a 166.67% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.32 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2022. Most notably, the city's share of state arsons increased significantly from 5.45% to 8.99%, indicating a much faster growth in arson cases compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $42,653 in 2013 to $47,136 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally decreased from 89 in 2013 to 188 in 2022. Additionally, there's a weak correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 94% in 2013 to 93% in 2022) and the overall increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the slight upward trend in overall property crimes. Larceny theft is expected to remain the predominant type of property crime, potentially reaching around 170-180 cases annually. Burglaries may stabilize around 20-25 cases per year, while motor vehicle thefts could see a slight increase to 15-18 cases annually. Arson cases, given their recent spike, warrant close monitoring and may fluctuate between 5-10 cases per year.
In conclusion, Livingston has experienced varying trends across different types of property crimes over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased, larceny thefts and arsons have seen significant increases. The city's share of state property crimes has generally increased, particularly for arsons, indicating a need for targeted prevention strategies. These trends, coupled with the slight population decrease and changes in median income, suggest a complex interplay of socio-economic factors influencing property crime rates in this Montana city.
