Motor vehicle theft trends showed an increase over the period. In 2010, there were 151 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 210 by 2022, a 39% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.86 in 2010 to 2.48 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.1% and 0.19%. This rise in motor vehicle thefts could suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated considerably over the years. In 2010, there were 19 arson incidents, which decreased to 14 by 2020 (the last year with available data), a 26.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.23 in 2010 to 0.16 in 2020. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 0.06% to 0.46%, indicating significant year-to-year volatility in this crime category.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $91,790 in 2013 to $145,919 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to lower property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of current trends. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching around 150 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 1,200 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase slightly, possibly reaching 230-240 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their volatile nature.

In summary, Livermore has experienced a mixed picture of property crime trends over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased and larceny-theft has remained relatively stable, motor vehicle thefts have increased. The city's rising median income appears to have a positive influence on overall property crime rates. These trends suggest that while Livermore has made progress in certain areas of property crime prevention, ongoing efforts are needed to address persistent challenges, particularly in motor vehicle theft prevention.