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Property Crime Trends in Litchfield, Illinois: A Decade of Concerning Increases
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Litchfield, located in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable increase from 229 incidents in 2010 to 300 in 2022, representing a 31% rise. During this same timeframe, the population grew modestly from 9,246 in 2010 to 9,340 in 2022, a 1% increase.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant volatility. In 2010, there were 33 burglaries, which increased to 43 by 2022, a 30.3% rise. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.57 in 2010 to 4.60 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state-wide trends. This suggests that while the city's population remained relatively stable, it became more vulnerable to burglaries over time.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a more moderate increase. In 2010, there were 193 larceny-thefts, rising to 242 in 2022, a 25.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 20.87 to 25.91 over this period. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.11% to 0.24%, indicating that this type of crime grew faster in the city than in the state overall. This trend suggests a growing issue with petty theft that outpaces population growth.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a significant increase, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 15 in 2022, a 400% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.32 to 1.61. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% to 0.05%, indicating a faster increase in this crime category compared to state trends. This substantial rise in motor vehicle thefts, despite the relatively stable population, points to an emerging issue that requires attention.
Arson cases in the city, while low in number, showed an upward trend. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 3 arson incidents in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 to 0.32. More strikingly, the city's share of state arsons rose from 0% to 0.45%, a significant increase that suggests arson has become a more prevalent issue in the city compared to state averages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $43,679 in 2013 to $50,853 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes until 2019, followed by an uptick in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have initially helped reduce property crimes, but recent increases indicate other factors at play.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Litchfield may see property crimes increase to approximately 350-375 incidents annually if current trends continue. Burglaries could rise to around 50-55 per year, larceny-thefts to 280-300, motor vehicle thefts to 20-25, and arson cases may stabilize at 3-4 annually.
In conclusion, Litchfield has experienced a notable increase in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The disproportionate rise in the city's share of state crimes across all categories suggests localized factors contributing to this trend. The inverse relationship between median income and crime rates until recent years indicates that economic factors play a role, but may not be the sole determinant. As the city moves forward, addressing these rising property crime trends, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
