Motor vehicle theft showed a different pattern, increasing over the study period. In 2010, there were 348 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 842 by 2022, a substantial 142% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.34 in 2010 to 2.88 in 2022, a 114.9% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also grew significantly, from 11.05% in 2010 to 17.17% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type increased more rapidly in the city compared to the rest of Nebraska.

Arson data shows considerable fluctuation and some gaps. In 2011, there were 25 reported arsons, which increased to 85 in 2022, a 240% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.10 in 2011 to 0.29 in 2022, a 190% increase. The city's share of state arsons rose dramatically from 13.51% in 2011 to 62.04% in 2022, indicating that arson became a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of the state.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and overall property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,419 in 2013 to $62,391 in 2022 (a 26.2% rise), total property crimes decreased by 14.4% over the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglary and larceny-theft.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: 1. Burglaries are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 700 incidents annually. 2. Larceny-theft may stabilize or slightly decrease, with an estimated 6,000-6,500 incidents per year. 3. Motor vehicle thefts could continue to rise, potentially reaching 1,000-1,100 incidents annually. 4. Arson cases may fluctuate but could stabilize around 80-90 incidents per year.

In summary, Lincoln has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rising trends in motor vehicle theft and arson present ongoing challenges. The city's growing share of state property crimes in certain categories suggests that while Lincoln is making progress, it may be outpacing improvements seen in other parts of Nebraska. These trends, coupled with the correlation between rising incomes and declining property crime rates, indicate that continued economic growth and targeted crime prevention strategies could further enhance public safety in the coming years.