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Property Crime Trends in Lillington: A Decade of Decline Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lillington, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 203 to 97, representing a 52.2% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 14,616 to 15,969, an increase of 9.3%.
The burglary rate in the city has shown a fluctuating trend over the years. In 2011, there were 57 burglaries, which decreased to 32 in 2022, a 43.9% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 3.90 in 2011 to 2.00 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.11% in 2011 to 0.13% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a significant decline. In 2011, there were 143 reported cases, which dropped to 49 in 2022, a substantial 65.7% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people fell from 9.78 in 2011 to 3.07 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.10% to 0.04% over this period, indicating a more rapid decline in larceny-theft compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends show more volatility. In 2011, there were only 3 reported cases, which increased to 16 in 2022, a 433.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.21 in 2011 to 1.00 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.03% to 0.11%, suggesting a significant local increase compared to state trends.
Arson data for the city shows zero reported cases throughout the period from 2011 to 2022, indicating either an absence of arson incidents or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $50,230 in 2013 to $57,534 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 167 in 2014 to 97 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the slight increase in home ownership rates, which rose from 70% in 2019 to 75% in 2022.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Lillington may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to around 70-80 incidents annually. Burglaries might stabilize at about 25-30 cases per year, while larceny-theft could potentially decrease to around 35-40 incidents. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching 20-25 cases annually if current trends persist.
In summary, Lillington has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The increase in motor vehicle thefts, however, presents a challenge that may require focused attention. These trends, coupled with rising incomes and homeownership rates, suggest a generally improving quality of life and safety in the community, despite the specific concerns around vehicle theft.
