Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased from 12 in 2010 to 22 in 2022, representing an 83.3% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents only grew from 1.1 to 2.02. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.05% to 0.31%, suggesting a significant shift in the distribution of this crime type within Florida.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and minimal. Only two incidents were reported over the 12-year period, one in 2010 and another in 2014, both representing 0.09% and 0.11% of state arson cases respectively. The rarity of these incidents makes it challenging to identify meaningful trends.

Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $82,419 in 2013 to $97,447 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting a potential negative correlation between income and crime rates. The stability in homeownership rates, hovering around 80-82% throughout the period, coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, possibly indicating that a high rate of homeownership contributes to community stability and lower crime rates.

Racial demographics showed minimal changes, with the white population decreasing slightly from 91% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, while Hispanic representation increased from 6% to 12%. This gradual diversification occurred alongside the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting no significant correlation between racial composition and crime rates in this case.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at very low levels, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, possibly dropping below 100 incidents per year. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase slightly, potentially reaching 30-35 incidents annually if current trends persist.

In conclusion, Lighthouse Point has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred in the context of stable population levels, increasing median income, and consistent homeownership rates. The city's performance in reducing property crimes appears to be stronger than the state average, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for continued focus. These trends suggest that Lighthouse Point has been effective in implementing crime prevention strategies, potentially benefiting from its stable community structure and improving economic conditions.