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Property Crime Trends in Libby, Montana: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Libby, Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 102 to 37, representing a 63.7% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city experiencing a slight decrease from 6,018 in 2010 to 5,914 in 2022, a 1.7% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which dropped to zero by 2022. This represents a 100% decrease in burglary incidents. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 1.66 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.54% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This substantial reduction suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, there were 90 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 37 by 2022, a 58.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 14.95 in 2010 to 6.26 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.78% in 2010 to 0.30% in 2022. This trend suggests that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing larceny-theft, similar reductions occurred statewide.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but generally remained low. From 2 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.33 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also declined from 0.25% to 0%. This trend indicates that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2014, with most years recording zero incidents. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, reaching a peak of 3.03% in 2014 but dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but arson does not appear to be a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $36,430 in 2013 to $45,210 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 58 to 37. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city could see further reductions in property crime. Larceny-theft, being the most prevalent crime, might stabilize around 30-35 incidents annually. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are likely to remain very low or at zero. Arson incidents are expected to continue their sporadic pattern, likely averaging less than one incident per year.
In conclusion, Libby has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with improvements across all categories. This positive trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests a community that has become safer and more economically stable over time. The projected continuation of these trends indicates a promising outlook for public safety in the coming years.
