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Property Crime Trends in Lewiston, Idaho: A Declining Pattern Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lewiston, Idaho, a city nestled along the Snake River, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 31.2%, from 1,332 to 916 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 9% during the same period, with the city's population increasing from 33,422 to 36,435 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 277 burglaries, which dropped to 171 by 2022, representing a 38.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.29 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.69 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 6.41% in 2010 to 8.25% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary has become less prevalent in the city, it has decreased at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. The number of incidents decreased from 992 in 2010 to 673 in 2022, a 32.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 29.68 in 2010 to 18.47 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft incidents increased slightly from 5.35% to 6.62% over this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft reduction was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately showed an increase. In 2010, there were 63 incidents, which rose to 72 in 2022, a 14.3% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.88 in 2010 to 1.98 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 7.23% to 5.89%, suggesting that the increase in this crime was less severe than the state average.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but showed an increase. The number of incidents rose from 4 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 25% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 0.12 to 0.14. The city's contribution to state arson cases more than doubled from 2.27% to 4.9%, indicating a significant increase relative to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $52,788 in 2013 to $59,339 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,169 to 916. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also showed a slight positive correlation with reduced property crime, rising from 68% in 2013 to 71% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to continue their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft and arson may stabilize or show slight increases. However, these projections should be interpreted cautiously as various factors can influence crime rates.
In summary, Lewiston has experienced a notable reduction in overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend has occurred despite population growth, suggesting improvements in local crime prevention efforts or broader socioeconomic factors. The increase in median income and homeownership rates correlates with these crime reductions, potentially indicating a strengthening community fabric. However, the slight upticks in motor vehicle theft and arson warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure these trends do not escalate in the coming years.
