Motor vehicle theft trends show a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased from 45 in 2010 to 70 in 2022, representing a 55.56% increase, the rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.70 to 2.66. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.43% to 0.48%. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the community, outpacing both population growth and state-level trends.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but remained relatively low. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which remained at 0 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.075 to 0. The city's share of state arson cases dropped from 0.20% to 0%, indicating a positive trend in arson prevention compared to state figures.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The overall decrease in property crimes appears to have a moderate negative correlation with the increase in median income, which rose from $34,269 in 2013 to $46,881 in 2022. This suggests that as economic conditions improved, property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there is a weak positive correlation between the slight increase in population density (from 1,272 per square mile in 2010 to 1,265 in 2022) and the rise in motor vehicle thefts.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes, with the total number potentially dropping to around 600 incidents. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 160-170 cases annually, while larceny-theft may further decrease to approximately 380-400 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts, however, are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 90-100 cases annually by 2029. Arson cases are expected to remain very low, with occasional incidents not exceeding 1-2 per year.

In conclusion, Lenoir has shown resilience in managing property crime over the past decade, with significant improvements in burglary and larceny-theft rates. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community initiatives. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a role in further reducing criminal activities. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing emerging challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.