Motor vehicle theft trends in the city have been more variable. In 2010, there were 67 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 88 in 2022, a 31.3% rise. However, when adjusted for population, the rate only slightly increased from 2.5 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.9 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.03% and 0.09% over the years. This increase, albeit modest when population-adjusted, suggests a need for targeted interventions in vehicle security.

Arson incidents in the city have shown significant fluctuations. From no reported cases in 2010, arson peaked at 13 incidents in 2011 before declining to just 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people correspondingly fluctuated, peaking at 0.49 in 2011 and dropping to 0.03 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from 0% to 0.22%, indicating the sporadic nature of this crime in the area.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 3,005 per square mile in 2010 to 3,391 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that increased urbanization or community presence may have deterred property crimes. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $66,833 in 2013 to $71,833 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to decrease further, potentially reaching rates of 1.5 and 8.5 per 1,000 people, respectively. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 2.8 per 1,000 people, while arson is likely to remain at very low levels, potentially averaging less than one incident per year.

In summary, Lemoore has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements were in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft showed a slight increase. These trends, coupled with rising population density and median income, suggest a generally improving security situation in the city. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts highlights an area requiring continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders.