Motor vehicle theft trends reveal a concerning increase over the years. In 2010, there were 122 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 307 by 2022, a substantial 151.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents also increased from 1.34 in 2010 to 2.94 in 2022, a 119.4% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.92% in 2010 to 1.27% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type increased more rapidly in Lee's Summit compared to the state average.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. In 2010, there were 5 arson cases, which decreased to 3 in 2022, a 40% reduction. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.055 in 2010 to 0.029 in 2022, a 47.3% decline. The city's contribution to state arson cases remained relatively stable, moving from 0.48% in 2010 to 0.49% in 2022.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,427 per square mile in 2010 to 1,632 in 2022, property crimes per capita actually decreased, suggesting that increased density did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing burglary rates. The median income rose from $77,014 in 2013 to $89,140 in 2022, while burglaries decreased during the same period.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 130 cases annually. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain stable or show a slight decrease, hovering around 1,700 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts, if the current trend persists, could potentially increase to approximately 350-400 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with annual numbers likely staying between 2-4 cases.

In summary, Lee's Summit has shown resilience in managing property crime despite significant population growth. The substantial decrease in burglaries and the relative stability of larceny-theft rates, when adjusted for population, indicate effective crime prevention strategies. However, the rising trend in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The city's changing share of state crime statistics across different categories suggests a need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies to maintain and improve public safety in this growing community.