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Property Crime Trends in Lebanon, Pennsylvania: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lebanon, Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city experienced a notable decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 678 incidents in 2010 to 528 in 2019, representing a 22.1% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 5% from 25,410 in 2010 to 26,679 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 169 burglaries, which decreased to 77 by 2019, marking a 54.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.65 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.99 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased dramatically from 0.66% in 2010 to 3.22% in 2019. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 473 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 430 by 2019, a 9.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 18.62 in 2010 to 16.67 in 2019. However, similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.61% in 2010 to 4.59% in 2019, indicating that the city's improvement was slower than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 36 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 21 in 2019, a 41.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.42 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.34% in 2010 to 2.13% in 2019, again suggesting a slower improvement compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuations. There were 3 cases in 2010, peaking at 7 in 2013, and dropping back to 1 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.04 in 2019. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.9% in 2019.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincided with a period of increasing population density, rising from 6,097 people per square mile in 2010 to 6,188 in 2019. Additionally, there was a notable increase in median income from $41,689 in 2013 to $48,972 in 2019, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 2.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may decrease further to approximately 15 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at around 0.8 per 1,000 residents, and arson cases are expected to remain low, possibly averaging 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, Lebanon has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. This improvement has occurred alongside population growth and increasing median income. However, the city's share of state property crimes has increased, indicating that while progress has been made, there is still room for improvement relative to state-wide trends. The projected continuation of these positive trends suggests that the city is moving in the right direction in terms of property crime prevention and community safety.
