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Property Crime Trends in Lebanon, Ohio: A Decade of Declining Burglaries and Rising Vehicle Thefts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lebanon, Ohio, is a growing community that has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, ultimately decreasing by 27.2% from 416 to 303 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 8.3% from 27,883 to 30,199 residents, suggesting an overall improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 73 burglaries, which decreased to just 13 in 2022, representing a remarkable 82.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.62 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.43 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average. This substantial improvement in burglary rates suggests enhanced security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a less dramatic but still positive trend. Incidents decreased from 336 in 2010 to 267 in 2022, a 20.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents improved from 12.05 in 2010 to 8.84 in 2022. Interestingly, despite the local decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.22% to 0.26%, suggesting that the city's improvement was less pronounced than the state average. This trend indicates that while progress has been made, larceny-theft remains a persistent challenge for local law enforcement.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 7 in 2010 to 23 in 2022, a 228.6% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.25 to 0.76 over this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased significantly from 0.04% to 0.1%. This upward trend, contrasting with the overall reduction in property crimes, may suggest a specific targeting of vehicles by criminals or changes in local conditions that have made motor vehicle theft more prevalent.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear long-term trend. The number of incidents varied from a high of 5 in 2012 to a low of 0 in several years, settling at 2 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents and the city's share of state arson cases have similarly varied. In 2022, the arson rate was 0.07 per 1,000 residents, and the city accounted for 0.23% of state arson cases. The volatility in arson statistics makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about long-term trends.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with an increase in median income, which rose from $75,319 in 2013 to $87,844 in 2022. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime. Additionally, the relatively stable and high percentage of owner-occupied housing (around 70%) throughout the period may have played a role in maintaining community stability and reducing opportunities for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at their current low levels, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease slightly. However, motor vehicle theft rates could potentially continue to rise if current trends persist, possibly becoming a focal point for future law enforcement efforts.
In summary, Lebanon has demonstrated significant progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite population growth. The divergent trend in motor vehicle thefts highlights an area requiring focused attention. These improvements, coupled with positive economic indicators, suggest a community moving towards greater safety and security, though continued vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to address evolving crime patterns.
