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Property Crime Trends in Lebanon, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lebanon, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 704 incidents in 2010 to 417 in 2022, representing a 40.8% reduction. This significant drop occurred alongside a modest population growth from 20,801 in 2010 to 22,006 in 2022, a 5.8% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 109 burglaries, which decreased to 46 in 2022, a 57.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 5.24 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.09 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.34% in 2010 to 0.35% in 2022, suggesting that while local burglaries decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 567 larceny thefts, which dropped to 331 in 2022, a 41.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 27.26 in 2010 to 15.04 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.5% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2022, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny theft was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more volatile. In 2010, there were 28 incidents, which increased to 40 in 2022, a 42.9% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.35 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2022. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.21% to 0.17%, suggesting that the increase was less severe than the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed significant fluctuations. From 4 cases in 2010, it rose to 6 in 2022, a 50% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.19 to 0.27. Notably, the city's share of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.38% to 0.98%, indicating that arson became a more significant issue relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $39,842 in 2013 to $49,225 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime.
Population density showed a weak positive correlation with property crime rates, increasing from 1,420 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,502 in 2022, while crime rates fluctuated. Race distribution remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 95% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, showing no strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates are likely to continue their overall downward trend. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to decrease further, potentially by another 20-30%. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or slightly decrease if economic conditions continue to improve. Arson cases, while low in number, may continue to fluctuate but are unlikely to see significant increases.
In summary, Lebanon has experienced a notable reduction in overall property crime rates despite population growth. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary and larceny theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson presented ongoing challenges. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a crucial role in further reducing property crime in the coming years.
