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Property Crime Trends in Laurie, Missouri: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Laurie, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the past decade, from 2010 to 2022, the city has experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 44 incidents in 2010 to 20 in 2022, representing a 54.5% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 3,925 in 2010 to 4,144 in 2022, a 5.6% increase, suggesting a divergence between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which decreased to just 2 in 2022, an 80% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.55 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.48 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.07% in 2017 before declining to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, outpacing population growth, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal behavior patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, also decreased over time. From 34 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 13 in 2022, a 61.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 8.66 in 2010 to 3.14 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02-0.03% throughout the period. This consistent decrease in larceny-theft, despite population growth, indicates a positive trend in community safety and property protection.
Motor vehicle theft showed more variability. From zero incidents in 2010, it peaked at 3 in 2014 and 2017, before settling at 5 in 2022. This represents an increase from 0 to 1.21 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. While the absolute numbers remain low, the recent uptick warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of arson cases suggests effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting of such incidents.
Examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship is observed between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $37,086 in 2013 to $52,000 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 26 to 20 in the same period. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in racial diversity and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 96% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, while the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 2% to 6%. During this period of increasing diversity, property crimes decreased, suggesting that growing diversity may be associated with community stability and reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes in Laurie may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 15 incidents per year. Burglaries might stabilize at 1-2 per year, larceny-theft could decrease to about 10 incidents annually, while motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate between 2-4 per year.
In conclusion, Laurie has demonstrated a promising trend of decreasing property crime rates despite population growth. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with stable low rates of motor vehicle theft and absence of arson, paint a picture of a community becoming safer over time. These trends, correlating with rising incomes and increasing diversity, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety and well-being in Laurie.
