Motor vehicle theft trends fluctuated but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 6 motor vehicle thefts, which doubled to 12 in 2022, a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.58 in 2010 to 1.02 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.76% to 0.77%. This increase in motor vehicle thefts, while the state share remained stable, suggests that this trend might be part of a broader regional or state-wide phenomenon.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and relatively rare. The highest number of arsons reported was 5 in 2019, with several years reporting zero cases. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to establish a clear trend or make meaningful comparisons to population or state percentages. However, the sporadic nature of these incidents suggests they may be isolated events rather than part of a broader pattern.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 4,762 per square mile in 2010 to 5,398 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in overall property crime rates. This suggests that higher population density may contribute to increased opportunities for property crimes. Additionally, the median income rose from $63,664 in 2013 to $78,033 in 2022, which surprisingly did not correspond with a decrease in property crimes as might be expected.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a continuation of current patterns. Based on the historical data, we can expect larceny-theft to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching around 250-270 cases annually by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show a slight increase, possibly reaching 15-18 cases per year. Burglaries are likely to remain low, potentially decreasing further to 5-6 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic and low in number.

In summary, Laurel has experienced a notable shift in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While burglaries have significantly decreased, larceny-thefts have risen substantially. Motor vehicle thefts have shown a moderate increase, and arson remains an infrequent occurrence. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and increasing median income, paint a complex picture of evolving criminal activities and community dynamics. As the city continues to grow and develop, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial in addressing these changing patterns of property crime.