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Property Crime Trends in Lathrop, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lathrop, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated but ultimately decreased by 63%, from 54 to 20 incidents. This significant reduction occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 18.5% from 3,577 in 2010 to 4,238 in 2021.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 19 burglaries reported, which decreased to zero by 2021. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.31 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0 per 1,000 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0% in 2021, indicating a significant improvement in this area of property crime relative to the rest of Missouri.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated but generally trended downward. In 2010, there were 31 larceny-thefts reported, which decreased to 15 by 2021, a reduction of 51.6%. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 8.67 in 2010 to 3.54 in 2021. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2021, suggesting that the local reduction in larceny-theft was somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents decreased from 4 in 2010 to 0 in 2015, but then increased again to 5 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 1.12 in 2010 to 1.18 in 2021. Interestingly, despite this small increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained stable at 0.03% from 2010 to 2021, indicating that the local trend mirrors the state trend for this type of crime.
Arson incidents have been extremely rare in the city. Only one case was reported in 2012, representing 0.1% of state arsons for that year. In all other years from 2010 to 2021, no arsons were reported, resulting in a 0% share of state arsons.
There appears to be a correlation between the overall decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. From 2013 to 2021, the median income rose from $69,383 to $74,790, a 7.8% increase. During this same period, total property crimes decreased by 50%, from 40 to 20 incidents. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 75% in 2013 to 80% in 2021, which may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglaries are likely to remain very low or at zero. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 12-15 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are unlikely to exceed 5-6 incidents annually. Arson is predicted to remain extremely rare, with possibly one incident every few years.
In summary, Lathrop has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred alongside population growth, increasing median incomes, and higher rates of home ownership. The city's share of state property crimes has generally decreased or remained stable, indicating that local crime reduction efforts have been effective relative to statewide trends. If current socioeconomic trends continue, Lathrop is likely to maintain its low property crime rates in the coming years, potentially serving as a model for other small cities in Missouri and beyond.
