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Property Crime Trends in Lakewood, California: A Decade of Fluctuations and Motor Vehicle Theft Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lakewood, California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 1,876 incidents in 2010 to 1,846 in 2022, representing a 1.6% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 80,154 in 2010 to 79,042 in 2022, a 1.4% decline.
Burglary trends in the city show significant fluctuations over time. In 2010, there were 307 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 438 in 2017 before declining to 237 in 2022, representing a 22.8% decrease over the entire period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.83 in 2010 to 3.00 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2022, indicating a slight relative increase in the city's contribution to state burglary figures despite the overall decrease in numbers.
Larceny theft trends show a similar pattern of fluctuation. In 2010, there were 1,249 larceny thefts, which peaked at 1,872 in 2016 before decreasing to 1,181 in 2022, a 5.4% decrease over the period. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 15.58 in 2010 to 14.94 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny theft trends largely mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 320 motor vehicle thefts, which decreased to a low of 189 in 2019 before sharply increasing to 428 in 2022, representing a 33.8% increase over the entire period. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.99 in 2010 to 5.41 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.25% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2022, indicating that the city experienced a disproportionate increase in this crime category compared to state-wide trends.
Arson incidents in the city fluctuated significantly but remained relatively low in number. In 2010, there were 2 arsons reported, which peaked at 14 in 2016 before decreasing to no data available in 2022. Due to the low numbers and inconsistent reporting, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends or their relation to population changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $75,171 in 2013 to $109,309 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. However, this correlation weakened in recent years, particularly with the rise in motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll present as five years from now) suggests a potential continuation of recent trends. Burglary and larceny theft rates are expected to remain relatively stable or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. Overall property crime rates are projected to remain within 5% of 2022 levels, barring significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Lakewood has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns over the past decade. While burglary and larceny theft have shown overall decreases, the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a significant challenge. The city's changing demographics and increasing median income appear to have had a moderating effect on some crime categories, but the persistence of motor vehicle theft suggests targeted interventions may be necessary to address this specific issue.
