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Property Crime Trends in Lakeport, California: A Decade of Change and Emerging Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lakeport, located in California, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 52.8%, from 282 to 133 incidents. During the same period, the city's population grew by 5.2%, from 6,397 to 6,732 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over time. In 2010, there were 63 burglaries reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing a 76.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 9.85 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.23 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally remained low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04% of California's total burglaries. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, 210 cases were reported, which dropped to 101 in 2022, a 51.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 32.83 in 2010 to 15.00 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.01% and 0.05%. This trend indicates a general improvement in property security or potentially changing socioeconomic factors affecting theft rates.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While there were 9 incidents in 2010, this number increased to 17 in 2022, an 88.9% rise. However, when considering population growth, the rate increased from 1.41 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.52 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained consistently low at 0.01% to 0.02%. This increase, contrary to other property crime trends, may warrant further investigation into local factors contributing to vehicle theft.
Arson data was limited, with only recent years showing reported incidents. In 2020, there was 1 reported case, which increased to 2 in 2022. This represents a rise from 0.15 to 0.30 incidents per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson cases jumped from 0.01% in 2020 to 0.03% in 2022. While the numbers are small, this upward trend should be monitored closely.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income rose from $61,616 in 2013 to $84,002 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 272 to 133. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 59% in 2013 to 74% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that improved economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may contribute to lower property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Lakeport may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching rates below 2 per 1,000 residents for burglary and 12 per 1,000 for larceny-theft. Motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or slightly decrease if preventive measures are implemented. Arson incidents, while currently low, should be closely monitored due to their recent uptick.
In summary, Lakeport has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing most forms of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggest a generally improving quality of life for residents. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and recent arson incidents highlight areas that may require targeted interventions to maintain the overall positive trajectory in community safety.
