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Property Crime Trends in Lake Ozark, Missouri: A Study of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lake Ozark, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 70 incidents in 2016 and declining to just 3 in 2022, representing a significant 95.7% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,344 in 2010 to 5,589 in 2022, a 28.7% increase, creating a unique backdrop for analyzing crime patterns.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which increased to 18 in 2012, representing a peak of 0.06% of the state's burglaries. However, by 2022, burglaries had dropped to zero. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.38 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved security measures or changing socio-economic factors within the community.
Larceny-theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. It peaked at 65 incidents in 2016, accounting for 0.07% of the state's larceny-thefts. By 2022, this number had dramatically decreased to just 3 incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.92 in 2010 to 0.54 in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting. This trend could be attributed to enhanced community policing or improved security measures in local businesses.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively low and inconsistent. The highest number of incidents was 4 in 2014, representing 0.03% of the state's motor vehicle thefts. In many years, including 2022, there were no reported motor vehicle thefts. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained close to zero throughout the period, suggesting that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases have been non-existent in the reported data from 2010 to 2022, consistently showing zero incidents. This absence of arson cases is a positive indicator for public safety and property protection in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 604 per square mile in 2010 to 777 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased, contrary to what might be expected. The median income rose from $45,648 in 2013 to $57,192 in 2022, which could have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft.
The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with a slight decrease from 97% in 2013 to 90% in 2022. This relative stability in racial demographics suggests that changes in property crime rates were likely influenced by other factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the downward trend. Based on the sharp decline observed from 2020 to 2022, it's projected that property crimes could stabilize at very low levels, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. However, this prediction assumes that current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Lake Ozark has experienced a remarkable decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most significant reductions were seen in burglaries and larceny-thefts, while motor vehicle thefts and arsons remained consistently low or non-existent. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and stable racial demographics, paint a picture of a community that has effectively managed and reduced property crime. The forecast suggests a continued positive outlook for public safety in Lake Ozark, making it an increasingly attractive location for residents and businesses alike.
