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Property Crime Trends in Lake Lafayette, Missouri: A Small City's Surprising Increase
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lake Lafayette, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. This small city of just 0.64 square miles has experienced fluctuations in both population and crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 4 to 6, representing a 50% increase. During the same period, the population decreased from 1,180 to 1,009, a decline of about 14.5%.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant variation over time. In 2010, there was 1 burglary reported, which increased to 2 in 2011, then dropped back to 1 in 2017 and 2018. However, 2020 saw a sharp increase to 4 burglaries, before settling at 3 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase from 2010 to 2022. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.85 in 2010 to 2.97 in 2022, a substantial rise. The city's share of state burglaries also increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to the state's burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained relatively stable, with 2 cases reported in 2010 and 2011, dropping to 1 in 2017, increasing to 3 in 2018, and then decreasing again to 1 in 2020 and 2022. This represents a 50% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 1.69 in 2010 to 0.99 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained at 0% throughout the period, suggesting that these incidents have minimal impact on statewide figures.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a fluctuating pattern. There was 1 case reported in 2010 and 2011, followed by no cases in 2017, 2018, and 2020. However, 2022 saw an increase to 2 cases. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2022. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.85 in 2010 to 1.98 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a slight increase in its contribution to state statistics.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city. No cases were reported in 2010, 2011, 2017, 2018, and 2022. However, there was 1 case reported in 2020, which represented 0.13% of the state's arson cases for that year. This single incident resulted in an arson rate of 0.85 per 1,000 people in 2020.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,841 per square mile in 2010 to 1,574 in 2022, the total property crimes increased. Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $65,000 in 2013 to $71,370 in 2022, property crimes also increased.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests a potential continuation of the current patterns. By 2029, five years from now, the total number of property crimes could reach 8 to 10 cases annually if current trends persist. This projection assumes that the relationships between population, income, and crime rates remain consistent.
In summary, Lake Lafayette has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. While some categories like larceny-theft have seen decreases, others such as burglary and motor vehicle theft have increased. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally increased, albeit remaining relatively small due to its size. These trends, coupled with demographic and economic changes, paint a picture of a small city grappling with evolving crime patterns amidst broader socioeconomic shifts.
