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Property Crime Trends in Lake Hamilton, Florida: A Decade of Decreasing Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lake Hamilton, located in Florida, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 53 in 2010, peaking at 100 in 2014, and ultimately decreasing to 38 in 2022, representing a 28.3% overall decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 2,618 in 2010 to 2,949 in 2022, an increase of 12.6%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 29 in 2016, before declining to 10 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 5.35 in 2010 to 12.45 in 2016, then dropped to 3.39 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of Florida's burglaries occurring within the city despite the overall decrease in incidents.
Larceny theft trends have been more stable but still show a downward trajectory. The number of larceny thefts decreased from 32 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.22 in 2010 to 8.14 in 2022. However, the city's contribution to state larceny thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.03% over this period, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately decreased. From 7 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 16 in 2013 before declining to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.67 in 2010 to 1.36 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% to 0.06%, indicating that despite the local decrease, the city's contribution to state figures has grown.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The highest number recorded was 2 cases in both 2012 and 2014, with several years reporting no incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.86 (in 2014) and was 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated dramatically, reaching a high of 0.23% in 2014 but falling to 0% in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percent of owner-occupied homes increased from 79% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 79 to 38 during the same period. This suggests that higher rates of home ownership may contribute to lower property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years. By 2029, we project that total property crimes could decrease to approximately 30 incidents per year, assuming current trends and socioeconomic factors remain consistent.
In summary, Lake Hamilton has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This trend, coupled with increasing home ownership rates, suggests an improving safety profile for the city. However, the increasing share of state crime figures in certain categories warrants attention from local law enforcement to ensure this doesn't become a long-term trend.
