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Property Crime Trends in LaFayette, Georgia: A Tale of Declining Burglaries and Persistent Larceny
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
LaFayette, located in Georgia, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 441 in 2010 to 327 in 2018, representing a 25.85% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population grew from 10,776 in 2010 to 11,986 in 2018, an increase of 11.23%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline. In 2010, there were 64 burglaries, which decreased to 23 in 2018, a 64.06% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.94 in 2010 to 1.92 in 2018. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.18% and 0.26% over the years. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it maintained a consistent proportion of the state's burglary incidents.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decrease over time. In 2010, there were 373 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 299 in 2018, a 19.84% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 34.61 in 2010 to 24.95 in 2018. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.24% to 0.38% over the years. This indicates that while the city made progress in reducing larceny-theft, it maintained its relative position within the state for this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed fluctuations over the years. From 4 incidents in 2010, it increased to 14 in 2013, then decreased to 5 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.37 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2018, showing a slight increase despite the overall decrease in incidents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0.03% and 0.13%, indicating that while the numbers were low, they represented a small but varying proportion of state incidents.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare, with 13 incidents reported in 2010, dropping to 0 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.21 in 2010 to 0 in 2018. The city's share of state arson cases was notably high at 3.16% in 2010 but dropped to 0% by 2018, indicating a significant improvement in this area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $37,894 in 2013 to $38,365 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between property crime rates and the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which decreased slightly from 63% in 2013 to 60% in 2022.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), LaFayette may see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching below 1.5 incidents per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft rates may stabilize around 20-22 incidents per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft and arson rates are projected to remain low, with potential fluctuations due to their already small numbers.
In conclusion, LaFayette has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates across most categories, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This improvement, coupled with population growth and modest economic gains, suggests a city moving in a positive direction in terms of public safety and community well-being. The consistent reduction in property crimes, even as the population grew, indicates effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement in crime prevention.
