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Property Crime Trends in Lafayette, California: A Decade of Declining Rates in an Affluent Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lafayette, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 447 to 316, representing a 29.3% reduction. This decline occurred despite a population growth from 25,175 in 2010 to 26,603 in 2022, a 5.7% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 116 burglaries, which decreased to 41 by 2022, a 64.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 4.61 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.54 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It started at 0.06% in 2010, dropped to a low of 0.02% in 2018, and then rose slightly to 0.04% by 2022. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it did so at a rate somewhat consistent with statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decrease over the period. In 2010, there were 293 larceny thefts, which reduced to 240 by 2022, an 18.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.64 in 2010 to 9.02 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.05% to 0.06% throughout most of the period, with a peak of 0.08% in 2015.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more volatile. The number of thefts decreased from 38 in 2010 to 35 in 2022, a 7.9% reduction. However, there were significant fluctuations, with a low of 17 thefts in 2018 and a high of 41 in 2015 and 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 1.51 in 2010 to 1.32 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging between 0.01% and 0.03% throughout the period.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with most years reporting zero or one incident. The highest number reported was 4 cases in 2016. Due to the low numbers, calculating meaningful trends or rates for arson is challenging, and the city's share of state arson cases remained negligible throughout the period.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $148,231 in 2013 to $162,960 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, the city maintained a high percentage of owner-occupied housing, consistently above 70%, which may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Lafayette could see further reductions in property crime. Burglaries might decrease to around 30-35 cases annually, larceny thefts could stabilize at approximately 200-220 cases, and motor vehicle thefts might range between 25-30 cases per year.
In summary, Lafayette has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most significant improvements were seen in burglary rates, while larceny theft and motor vehicle theft also showed declines. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggest a community that has become increasingly secure. However, ongoing vigilance and community engagement will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
