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Property Crime Trends in Laconia: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Laconia, a city in New Hampshire known for its scenic lakes and vibrant community, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 827 to 470, representing a 43.2% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 16,225 to 16,898, a modest increase of 4.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline over the years. In 2010, there were 143 burglaries, which dropped to just 17 in 2022, marking an 88.1% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.8 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.0 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 5.96% in 2010 to 3.07% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a notable decrease. In 2010, there were 672 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 435 in 2022, a 35.3% decline. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 41.4 in 2010 to 25.7 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 6.38% in 2010 to 6.34% in 2022. This suggests that while larceny-theft has decreased in the city, it has done so at a rate similar to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 12 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, a 50% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.74 to 1.07. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 9.79% in 2019 before settling at 3.35% in 2022. This volatility might indicate changing patterns in vehicle security or targeted enforcement efforts.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of incidents remained the same at 4 cases in both 2010 and 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 2.33% in 2010 to 6.35% in 2022, suggesting that while arson remained stable in the city, it may have decreased more significantly in other parts of the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $64,741 in 2013 to $67,149 in 2022, overall property crime decreased. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 57% in 2013 to 59% in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher homeownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at their current low levels, while larceny-theft may continue to decline slightly. Motor vehicle theft rates might fluctuate but are not expected to increase significantly. Arson cases are likely to remain low but could show slight variations year to year.
In summary, Laconia has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's growing population, increasing median income, and stable homeownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends. While challenges remain, especially in addressing motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with lower property crime rates. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
